UK at risk of recession after the economy shrinks

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By Michael Race
Business reporter, BBC News

The UK is at risk of recession after revised figures showed the economy shrank between July and September.

Gross domestic product, which measures the health of the economy, contracted by 0.1% after previous estimates suggested growth has been flat.

Meanwhile, there was zero growth between April and June, after it was first calculated to have risen by 0.2%.

A recession is defined as when the economy shrinks for two three-month periods in a row.

There have been concerns over the UK’s weak economic growth for some time, but the country has managed to avoid a recession so far.

Ashley Webb, UK economist at Capital Economics, said that the revised figures “may mean that the mildest of mild recessions started” in the third quarter between July and September.

“But whether or not there is a small recession, the big picture is that we expect real GDP growth to remain subdued throughout 2024,” he said.

However, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt said the “medium-term outlook” for the UK economy was “far more optimistic than these numbers suggest”.

Earlier this week, data showed that inflation – which measures the rate of price rises – slowed by more than expected to 3.9% in the year to November, down from 4.6% in the previous month.

The Bank of England has, until recently, been raising interest rates to cool inflation. The better-than-expected inflation rate prompted speculation that the the Bank could its base rate in spring next year from the current 5.25%.

Mr Hunt said with inflation falling, the measures he outlined in his Autumn Statement would “deliver the largest boost to potential growth on record”.

But Rachel Reeves, the shadow chancellor, said the prime minister had “failed to grow the economy”.

Rishi Sunak has made growing the economy one of his key pledges. Downing Street said the promise will be met if the economy is bigger in the three-month period of October to December 2023 than it was in the previous three months.

It will not be clear until February whether the UK has entered or avoided recession when figures are released for the October to December quarter.

Friday’s figures could put more pressure the Bank of England to cut interest rates earlier in 2024. Although at its last two rate-setting meetings, the Bank has said it is “too early” to consider reducing borrowing costs.

The latest GDP data suggested that rising interest rates are weighing on consumer spending, which slowed over the period.

The Bank of England raised interest rates 14 times in a row until September. While raising rates can reduce inflation and benefit savers, it can also affect economic growth by making it more expensive for consumers and businesses to borrow money.

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) also said it revised down its figures for the three months after additional information showed that businesses in film production, engineering and design as well as telecommunications were “all performing a little worse than we thought”.

It added there were “weaker performances” from smaller businesses, particularly those in the hospitality and IT sectors.

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