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How did politics and politicians fare in 2023?
In the next couple of weeks there’ll be plenty of mulling over this year’s big events, from the Coronation to Eurovision (with a by-election – or six – thrown in).
We’ll all have our own memories to pick out over a box of Quality Street – but Westminster’s end of year report might feature five central facts.
Polls remain poor for the PM
Rishi Sunak’s hoped for turnaround didn’t happen. Despite several restarts, refreshes, reboots and promises of the ‘real Rishi’ coming out, the prime minister has not been able to shake his party out of the doldrums in the polls.
And divisions in the last few weeks over immigration have been a very obvious demonstration of how much fear and loathing there is inside the party.
One senior Tory gave the party “one point for still being in government, but struggling to go much further, sadly”.
But some close to Mr Sunak hold out that with patience and persistence, IF (in giant capital letters) the party can stick together, there could yet be a rally when the party actually gets closer to the general election.
One party grandee gave the PM this teacher’s report: “Headboy – eight out of 10 for effort and enthusiasm. Home Affairs monitor sadly expelled after huge efforts were made to get her involved in team sports. After a period of low morale, an unexpected end-of-term rally. This might be sustained if the planned school trip to East Africa goes ahead?”
Gaps in Labour’s offer to voters
Labour is starting to believe that it is on its way to Number 10. You can see it in top team’s body language and increasing confidence. Looking at the polls, you can understand why that’s an assumption they are beginning to make, with Keir Starmer talking about being “ready to serve”, even sketching out two terms of government, a “decade of renewal”.
But there are still two big and important gaps – in policy, and in politics. It is easy to understand why Labour is reluctant to sketch out comprehensive details on how it wants to govern – opposition parties don’t want their plans to be picked apart, and sometimes, they simply don’t really know.
But as every day gets closer to the election, there will be more and more pressure on them to do that. They want to borrow more, and instinctively want to spend more too, yet promise repeatedly that there’s an iron first gripping the public cheque book. That tension will only get more acute.
And despite months of chunky leads in the polls, Labour knows well that’s not driven by huge public love for Keir Starmer as a leader. So the second gap, is in enthusiasm, and Labour hasn’t created excitement about what they are offering voters.
A Labour insider said: “Were I a teacher taking my pen to it I’d say ‘good start – more to do’.”
Don’t forget Lib Dem gains
The Lib Dems haven’t featured much in day-to-day Westminster sagas in 2023.
But don’t ignore some of the progress they have made, that could make a difference as we turn into an election year. They scooped up lots of seats in the local elections in May, and enjoyed by election success, with each pantomime photo opportunity more ridiculous, and therefore attention-grabbing: driving tractors through hay bales, posing with giant clocks, and canons.
A Lib Dem source gave them “seven out of 10. Our national polls could do better, but our strategy is focused on winning seats from the Tories in the blue wall.”
In other words, rather than going for scale, they are going for targeted success, in affluent parts of the country where they reckon they can grab the most seats.
SNP fades as a fighting force…
Now let’s turn to politicians gone, but not forgotten. Nicola Sturgeon’s exit from politics has reshaped the UK-wide contest.
Combine the disappearance of a prominent leader, the embarrassment over a police investigation, and arguments over the strategy for independence, 2023 saw the SNP fade as a fighting force.
That’s not to suggest that the debate over independence has gone forever. But the party’s decline in 2023, at least for now, has fundamentally changed the shape of the contest.
…and so too does Boris Johnson
Boris Johnson left Parliament. One of the most influential politicians of his generation is no longer around, having been found by a committee of MPs to have deliberately misled them over Partygate.
He and his supporters still cry foul. A number of Conservatives still dream of a possible return. He still has a newspaper column, and will be making a return on the payroll of the channel, GB News.
Yet as 2023 closes, it is hard to see how much trouble he could really cause. Most Conservatives were exhausted by the perma-drama around him by the time he left. There are so many former prime ministers knocking around now, how much influence does he really hold?
But if we’ve learnt anything by now, it’s that politics has a never-ending capacity to twist and turn.
Thanks for reading here every week, and thanks for your company on the show.
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In their first TV interview in more than two years, Baroness Mone and her husband Doug Barrowman, will be on the show. They were accused of making millions from PPE during the pandemic and covering it up. They say they want to clear their name, but what do they have to say?
Full interview on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg, BBC One and BBC iPlayer, 9am, 17 December
We’ll also be talking to Deputy PM Oliver Dowden and actor Brian Cox, and looking back over the year just gone
Watch live on the BBC News website, BBC One and iPlayer from 09:00 GMT on Sunday
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