45 minutes ago
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Let’s unpack what Rishi Sunak has said about the timing of an election – and what he hasn’t.
“My working assumption is we’ll have a general election in the second half of this year.”
Sixteen words in which the prime minister is, outwardly, saying something.
And yet also saying potentially nothing.
Let’s be clear – this is generating news because Mr Sunak has never before been drawn on the timing of the general election, and it is the topic that is obsessing Westminster.
And, for the first time, he has offered an answer.
But he hasn’t ruled anything out.
The phrase “working assumption” is a curious one – it tends to be a thing people have about other people’s judgements and decisions, not their own.
Remember, up until mid December this year, the timing is in his hands.
He doesn’t need to assume anything.
He can decide.
And so what we are seeing here is his power of flirtation.
He has hinted at his current instinct, without committing to a date or ruling anything out.
He will hope – after a blizzard of criticism from opposition parties that he is a scaredy cat – that it will give him at least a bit of space to govern and make arguments, with the “when will the election be?” question perhaps a little less potent.
But the opposition parties will keep up the “squatting in Downing Street” accusation that Sir Keir Starmer made in an interview I did with him earlier.
There will be two thoughts in the prime minister’s mind. The Conservatives can govern until January of next year without facing the electorate. Whatever the howls of anger, that is constitutionally legitimate.
If the election is in October or afterwards, Rishi Sunak will have done two years as prime minister – whatever happens on polling day.
Going earlier than that voluntarily surrenders a guarantee of several months in Downing Street, with no guarantee he is re-elected – in fact opinion polls suggesting a high likelihood of defeat.
So the gamble of going early sacrifices something that is otherwise secure – additional months in the job – on the guesswork that going earlier might lead to a better outcome.
The opinion polls would have to shift one heck of a lot, mighty quickly, for the spring to look like a viable option for Rishi Sunak right now.
Going later also taps into a universal bit of human psychology: something might turn up.
Who knows what might happen between now and later in the year, which might change things.
And if something happens sooner?
Well, read those 16 words again. He hasn’t ruled anything out.