Attacks on commercial vessels appear to have become an established tactic in ongoing wars. In the Gulf region, they are part of the continuing war of attrition between the United States and Iran. In the Black Sea, they have become an increasingly prominent feature of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Most of the vessels being targeted are not military ships but commercial ones carrying oil, gas and petroleum products, or food commodities such as wheat and corn. All are essential either to the functioning of the economy or to human survival.

In October, commercial shipping in the Black Sea witnessed a sharp escalation, with a series of drone attacks targeting at least nine vessels off the coasts of Romania and Bulgaria, both NATO members. This is a dangerous development through which Moscow is testing the alliance’s cohesion. Several NATO members have already complained of Russian incursions into their territory, raising questions about whether Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which provides for collective defence, could be invoked.

Russia has repeatedly bombarded Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and the Danube River. With most Ukrainian ports disrupted, Kyiv has turned to alternative routes to export its grain to markets in Africa and the Middle East. These fall into three main categories:

• The Danube corridor through Romania: Grain is transported from Ukraine’s interior to the ports of Izmail and Reni on the Danube, then through Romania’s Sulina Channel to the Black Sea, or to the Romanian port of Constanta, where it is transferred to larger vessels.
• Overland corridors through the European Union: Ukraine uses trains and trucks to transport grain through Poland, Slovakia, Hungary and Romania, from where it is shipped through European ports on the Baltic, Adriatic or Black Seas.
• The Ukrainian maritime corridor along NATO coastlines: Departing from ports in the Odesa region, ships travel through the western Black Sea, close to the waters of Romania and Bulgaria, then towards Turkiye, before passing through the Bosphorus Strait to reach global markets.

But these alternative corridors have not escaped Russian attacks. According to a report by maritime security company Ambrey, the monthly rate of attacks associated with the Danube corridor was 3.7 times higher in the July-September quarter than in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, the Danube’s share of cargo handled at Ukrainian ports jumped from about 10 percent during January-June to 74 percent in August 2026.

A war on food, from land to sea

Seeking to inflict maximum damage and losses on each other, neither Russia nor Ukraine has shied away from using every available means to deter or subdue the other. While the war initially focused on military and logistical facilities, attacks subsequently expanded to infrastructure and ports, then gradually to refineries and energy installations. Today, food-related facilities and ships carrying grain and other food products are increasingly in the line of fire.

At the beginning of the war, Moscow concentrated its strikes on Ukraine’s infrastructure for producing grain and oilseeds. It obstructed access to Ukrainian ports on the Black Sea and repeatedly targeted vessels carrying grain. This forced Ukraine to secure alternative export routes, including the Danube, which has itself become a target of Russian attacks.

Grain and vegetable oil exports are a vital part of Ukraine’s economy. Data indicate that they accounted for about 40 percent of the country’s total merchandise exports in the first half of this year. This helps explain why Russia has concentrated its strikes on ports and vessels transporting these economically vital products.

Ukraine’s agriculture minister estimates that if the ports remain closed, the country will lose at least $8bn between June this year and June 2027. That shortfall would be equivalent to 20 percent of its total export revenues last year. Russian attacks on cargo vessels and export infrastructure have largely brought maritime traffic through Ukraine’s Black Sea ports to a halt. These ports previously handled about 90 percent of the country’s agricultural exports.

On the other side, Russian grain production and exports had, until recently, remained relatively insulated from attacks. But this summer, Kyiv redirected its drones towards Russian grain and vegetable oil export facilities, as well as commercial vessels, including grain carriers.

This marked a significant shift in the economic war, as Ukrainian strikes had previously focused more heavily on Russian energy installations and military facilities. Ukrainian attacks disrupted main Russian grain export terminals on the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, forcing Moscow to divert some of its exports to Baltic Sea ports. The Sea of Azov had previously handled nearly a quarter of Russia’s wheat exports.

Supply shortages and soaring prices

Russia is the world’s largest wheat exporter, while Ukraine ranks fifth. Together, they account for nearly 27 percent of global wheat exports. Recent attacks have pushed wheat futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange to their highest levels since 2023, with prices rising by about 20 percent in the first nine months of this year.

The escalation of attacks by both sides has coincided with the peak wheat export season in each country. Winter wheat, the dominant variety grown in Russia and Ukraine, is harvested in summer and exported in late summer and early autumn.

Ukrainian attacks, particularly those targeting Russian ports on the Sea of Azov and at Novorossiysk, have reportedly knocked out an estimated 70 percent of Russia’s grain export capacity. Recent Russian attacks, meanwhile, have halted shipments from Odesa, putting nearly 90 percent of Ukrainian grain shipments out of operation.

Ukraine also intensified its attacks on cargo ships departing Russian ports in July and August. According to Ukrainian military officials, they struck 76 Russian vessels between July 6 and 11. In mid-July, Russia suspended exports through the Don-Azov Canal. Russian wheat exports via the Sea of Azov suffered a further setback following a Ukrainian attack on a major grain export terminal at the Russian port of Taman in late July.

Caught between war and drought

As the saying goes, misfortunes rarely come alone. Attacks on food-related facilities and supply routes involving two of the world’s largest grain producers have coincided with a decline in global wheat production caused by drought and climate change.

According to estimates by the US Department of Agriculture, the combined production of the world’s seven largest wheat-exporting countries is likely to fall by 11 percent in the 2026-27 season.

Together, these developments pose a dual threat to global food security. The capacity to produce food is declining, while the ability to deliver it to importing markets is being disrupted, amid rising transport costs and the growing expense of securing shipments.

Ultimately, the war unfolding in the Black Sea will translate into higher food prices, rising import bills and the depletion of strategic reserves, particularly in Arab and African countries that depend heavily on imported grain.

The disruption of energy supplies caused by the war in Gulf waters is already fuelling inflation. Now, the decline in food supplies resulting from the war in the Black Sea threatens to add another, equally dangerous source of inflation.

A version of this piece in Arabic was originally published by Al Jazeera Centre for Studies here.